Relationship between business confidence index and non-financial firms foreign exchange assets and liabilities: Evidence from ARDL bound approach

The effects of confidence indices on macroeconomic factors and stock returns are widespread in the literature. This study, unlike previous studies, examines the effect of the confidence index on foreign exchange positions of non-financial firms. Are the non-financial firms’ managers considering the business confidence index when they manage their foreign exchange position? According to the findings, while there is no significant relationship between non-financial firms' foreign currency assets and business confidence index; there is a significant relationship between the foreign currency liabilities and the business confidence index in both the long-run and the short-run. Although the coefficient is low, as the business confidence index increases, the total foreign currency liabilities of non-financial firms also increase. With this study, it is revealed that the perception of confidence is an important factor in the formation of firms' foreign exchange policies. Confidence perceptions due to economic policies also affect firms' foreign exchange amounts.